12/20/20

Pennsylvania Election Night Data Irregularity

This is the plot of vote counts from Pennsylvania presidential race.  The data came from Edison Research, which was used by virtually all main stream medias for vote reporting.  You can get the data here.  Open it in Firefox, then click data->races->0->timeseries.  


You may notice something strange at the beginning part of the graph.  Vote count normally only goes up because it continues accumulating as time goes by.  But in this graph, there are spike-downs as well as spikes up. What's going on?

We will  expand this weird looking part and focus on the first 55 vote dumps from Pennsylvania.

The first vote dump (numbered 1 in the plot) out of Pennsylvania has 64535 votes with Biden's share 0.799 and Trump's 0.188.

If we do the calculation, Biden got 51563 and Trump got 12132.  Because vote shares are rounded to 3 decimal places, the vote counts Biden and Trump get are not accurate, even though the total vote is accurate.  But we can actually get the accurate vote count for each candidate.  The source is also Edison/New York Times.  NYTimes has timestamped snapshot vote reports for all precincts for certain counties of Pennsylvania.  For example the first report that has any non-zero votes is:
https://static01.nyt.com/elections-assets/2020/data/api/2020-11-03/precincts/PAGeneralConcatenator-2020-11-04T01:02:56.961Z.json
By calculating the difference between vote counts in different timestamped reports, we get a clear picture of vote increments for each candidate for each precinct of some counties at each timestamp.  So we know the exact vote split of the first vote dump - Biden:51555, Trump:12147, and they are all absentee votes from Allegheny county.  Here's sample of 2 precincts.


Next vote dump of 21818 is from Luzerne county.  The one after that is mostly from Centre county.

The vote dump numbered 2 in the graph is from Philadelphia. It has Biden 70573 and Trump 4279.  This first vote dump out of Philly is highly unusual.  It has by far highest Biden/Trump ratio of 16.5 among all vote dumps out of Philadelphia.  

In vote dump marked 3, out of 82711 votes, around 74000 were given to Biden, around 8500 was given to Trump.  At this point, Biden has 254000 votes, Trump has only 46000.  So Biden held a margin of 200 thousands over Trump.  It looks like Biden was given a huge head start.  But is it fraud?  Yes, it is.  Because they admitted in the vote dump #4.

In vote dump #4, there are 130027 votes, almost all of them are for Trump, Biden got virtually 0.  How can this possibly be a real vote dump?  It cannot.  I think someone was afraid of getting caught because the unrealistically huge Biden margin, so they bumped Trump's number up so it didn't look so suspicious.   But as we will see, this bump would be taken away later.

In the 3 vote dumps between #4 and #5, out of 121000 votes, Biden gained 96000, Trump gained 24000.   In the vote dump marked 6, out of 113941, Biden got 89000, Trump 24000.   A large component of this dump are votes from Montgomery county (72823 votes, Biden 64777, Trump 7756).
Biden's margin at this point is again over 200 thousands.

At #7, we have a crazy vote dump of 239084, out of which 200000 are for Biden, 40000 are for Trump.  Then after more than a dozen vote dumps, in #8, exactly 239084 votes were taken out.  I guess someone realized a huge Biden:Trump 5:1 vote dump was jus too unbelievable,  better taking it back then spread them out to smaller vote dumps so they are more credible.

In #9 vote dump, 114886 votes were taken out.  But only Trump's vote take a dive,  Biden's vote actually increased.  It seems they took out the #4 Trump bump.  At this point Biden's margin increased to be over 300 thousands.

Next in #10 vote dump, a total of 507047 votes were added.  Out of them, 337K are for Biden, 146K are for Trump.  This half million vote dump is absolutely fraud!  In these votes, 173K are from Chester county.  Out of 230 Chester precincts, 203 precincts reported 675 votes with Biden 421 and Trump 233.
To verify, open:

 in Firefox, click "Raw Data", then search for "chester" a few times.


Can 203 precincts have exactly same number of votes and exact same vote splits?  Impossible!

Both 421 and 233 are prime numbers.  What's the reason for prime numbers?  If you use prime number , you are guaranteed to NOT have a whole number ratio or numbers that have a common denominator (other than 1).    I guess the fraudulent vote tabulating system was programmed to generate random numbers that approach an overall ratio.  But to avoid suspicion, it try to generate numbers that have no apparent relationship.  Unfortunately in this case, the random number generator got stuck!

How many more  of these half million votes are fraudulent?  Most of them are.  Again realized this fraud vote dump was too apparent, in #11 at 2:22GMT or 9:22PM EST, they removed a total of 586189 votes!  Which votes did they remove?  I don't know.  But I do know that those fraudulent Chester county votes were not removed.  The next Chester vote update wouldn't come until 3 hours later at 5:27GMT (or 0:27 EST).

After #11 huge vote reduction, Biden still hold 200K margin over Trump.  From this point on, Trump was able to catch up and leap over.  The "glitch" that was caught on CNN where exactly 19958 votes were removed from Trump and added to Biden's total, happened at 4:08GMT (11:08pm EST).  As Trump continued gain momentum, at 2am EST in the morning he had a 700K margin over Biden.  Then came the big nation wide coordinated "halt", and vote dumps afterward that miraculously narrow the gap.  They have everyone's attention.

But I think just like the one in Maricopa county, the huge early Biden head-start in Pennsylvania need more attention.  The first 50 vote dumps out of Pennsylvania were complete mess.  Some of them got cleaned up,  but a good number of fraudulent votes are still there and in the final total.  They should be investigated and taken out.   The 421:233 Chester votes are still there.   The 75K Biden/Trump ratio 16.5 Philly votes are still there.  The 73K B/T 8:1 ratio Montgomery votes are still there.  The 30K 4:1 Centre votes are still there.  If even half of 200K early fraudulent Biden margin is taken out, Trump would win Pennsylvania (Biden's margin is 82K)

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